America's Overseas Voters

During 2016, the Rothermere American Institute released two reports on the critical importance of American citizens living outside the US – an estimated 6 million people – in influencing the outcomes of elections in the US.

America's Overseas Voters: How they could decide the US Presidency in 2016, released ahead of the Democrats Abroad Global Primary on Super Tuesday, notes that when votes have been tight, expatriate voters have played a decisive role in the outcome of several key political contests in the US - including the 2000 Presidential election. This study triggered widespread discussion in the US and international media and helped to prompt a major overseas voter registration drive by the online pressure group Avaaz.

A follow-up report, America's Overseas Voters: 2016's Forgotten Constituency, published a few weeks before the presidential election, develops that analysis considerably, providing a more detailed look at US states where the result is most likely to be influenced by overseas voters, the profile of the population of overseas voters from a key swing state, and some of the countries in which overseas voters reside.

The reports were authored by RAI Directors Professor Jay Sexton and Dr Halbert Jones, and RAI Research Associate Dr Patrick Andelic.