The US Presidential Election: Who Will Win

Electoral College 2016

As a once-in-a-lifetime election campaign nears its end, still so many questions remain unanswered. The largest question, of course, is who will win. But beyond that, other questions – such as projected turnout, the impact of mail-in voting, and the importance of ‘Never Trump’ Republican groups, remain outstanding. To answer these questions and more, the RAI is pleased to host one of the most respected data-driven journalists and two political consultants with significant experience in presidential campaigns.

We are delighted to welcome FiveThirtyEight senior political writer Clare Malone as well as two well-renowned political consultants from different sides of the aisle, Bob Shrum and Mike Murphy. The event will be chaired by RAI Director, Professor Adam Smith.

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Clare Malone is a senior political writer for FiveThirtyEight. In addition to writing for the website, she is a co-host of their popular Politics Podcast. She formerly served on the editoral staff of The New Yorker and her writing has appeared in The New York Times, The New Yorker, VIA, and The American Prospect, among others.

Bob Shrum is a former political strategist and consultant who was described as "the most sought-after consultant in the Democratic Party" by The Atlantic Monthly. Mr Shrum served as speechwriter to New York Mayor John V. Lindsay from 1970 to 1971, speechwriter to Sen. George McGovern’s 1972 Presidential campaign and speechwriter and press secretary to Sen. Edward M. Kennedy from 1980 to 1984. He served as senior advisor to the Gore-Lieberman campaign in 2000 and to the Kerry-Edwards campaign in 2004. He is now the co-Director of the University of Southern California Dornsife Center for the Political Future, where he is the Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics.

Mike Murphy is one of the Republican Party’s most successful political consultants. He worked on the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush and John McCain, and has also consulted for Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Christine Todd Whitman. He has made frequent appearances as a political commentator on television and now co-hosts the popular podcast Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod. In 2020, he is the Strategic Advisor to Republican Voters Against Trump. With Mr Shrum, Mr Murphy is the co-Director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future.